Although official statistics still show a relatively high level of available warehouse space, the actual situation on the market is much tighter than the reports suggest. According to experts at SQM Advisory, the warehouse market will face a sharp decline in space availability over the coming quarters. A return of demand, combined with limited new supply, could quickly shift the balance of power in the market.
The last two years in the warehouse market have been marked by caution. Tenants focused on cost optimization and contract renegotiations, while developers limited the implementation of new projects without secured lease agreements. As a result, the market entered a period of apparent equilibrium, where space availability remains relatively high and companies, at least theoretically, can still count on favorable negotiation terms.
The biggest mistake today would be to assume that the official vacancy level guarantees a comfortable situation in the coming years. There are many indications that the market will very quickly move from a surplus of available space to a battle for the best locations. We are observing an increase in demand, which is being stimulated by the activity of tenants from abroad, including Asia.
– says Tomasz Arent, Partner at SQM Advisory.
According to SQM Advisory experts, the current market picture may not reflect the true scale of changes occurring on the demand side. The largest available modules in attractive locations are being successively absorbed by tenants.
There are many indications that current data shows the past rather than the future of the market. We see growing activity from logistics and e-commerce companies, which are taking over the largest available modules. The current level of officially available space may give tenants a sense of security, but the market is not prepared for the moment when demand rises sharply again. For tenants, this means the necessity of planning relocations and contract renegotiations earlier, as well as the risk of rising rental rates.
– says Tomasz Arent.
At the same time, new supply remains limited. Developers are cautious about launching speculative projects, and financial institutions are analyzing the risks of new investments much more thoroughly than they were a few years ago.
According to data from the Polish Chamber of Commercial Real Estate (PINK), the stock of modern warehouse space in Poland currently exceeds 37 million sq.m., and the vacancy rate remains at around 7 percent. However, these data only provide a background for the processes taking place in the market. The location, quality, and actual availability for new tenants are becoming increasingly important, rather than just the scale of available space. As experts from SQM Advisory emphasize, there are currently practically no attractive large spaces on the market where negotiations with potential tenants are not already underway.
At the end of March 2026, according to PINK, 1.44 million sq.m. were under construction across Poland. Among the regions, the largest share of space under construction was recorded in the Masovian Voivodeship (37 percent of space under construction), Silesian (15 percent), and Łódź (11 percent). Meanwhile, the lowest vacancy rate was recorded in the Podlaskie Voivodeship (0.0 percent), Opole (1.1 percent), and West Pomeranian (1.4 percent).
If several strong tenant groups begin to increase their activity in selected regions simultaneously, space availability could shrink much faster than most market participants currently assume.
– summarizes Tomasz Arent.
As SQM Advisory emphasizes, shrinking space availability and a limited number of new investments increase the risk of a sharp rise in effective rents as early as 2026.
Source: SQM Advisory