In 2025, the Polish warehouse market showed signs of stabilization, with continued caution on the part of both developers and tenants. As the Polish economy accelerated in the second half of the year, market sentiment improved. The sector remained one of the most stable in the entire commercial real estate market, accounting for over 30% of the total investment volume in 2025. Nevertheless, market participants are expected to continue focusing on risk mitigation in response to changing economic and geopolitical conditions.
In 2025, warehouses, as in the previous year, accounted for 45% of the volume of all valuations we prepared, and the vast majority were the basis for credit security. This reflects their importance to the financial sector. When valuing, financing institutions expect an indication of the opportunities and risks associated with investing, which shows how important the proper identification of a property’s strengths and weaknesses by appraisers is in the valuation process. To meet the requirements of banks, we analyze the legal and technical documentation as well as the commercial situation of warehouse properties. We position the valued property against the background of the warehouse sector based on available market data. ESG analysis and its impact on value are also playing an increasingly important role in valuation, which requires us to conduct a broader analysis in this area than before.
– Agnieszka Bogucka, Senior Valuer, Valuation and Advisory, Avison Young
Total stock of modern warehouse space in Poland has exceeded 37 million sqm, which underscores the maturity of the market and its high level of development. The so-called Big Five markets continue to play a dominant role, accounting for over 70% of total stock.
Tenant activity has clearly increased, with renegotiations still dominating the demand structure. Tenants continue to prioritize operational continuity and cost control over relocations or expansions.
Developer activity remained limited, with only 1.8 million sqm under construction, mainly as part of projects implemented for specific tenants (BTS/BTO). The start of new investments largely depends on securing pre-lease agreements, which are crucial for obtaining financing. As a result, speculative investments are limited and subject to careful risk management.
Vacant space decreased to approximately 2.5 million sqm, which translates into an average vacancy rate of ~7%. The highest vacancy levels were recorded in Western Poland and Wrocław, which is why property owners in this region are showing increasing flexibility in lease negotiations, while the lowest vacancy rates were observed in Opole, Kraków, and Szczecin.
High tenant activity was consistently observed in the so-called Big Five markets, which accounted for 80% of total demand. Furthermore, Warsaw, Upper Silesia, and Central Poland dominated in terms of leased space, with a result exceeding 1.0 million sqm in each of these markets.
Rental rates remained relatively stable, with an upward trend applying to new “prime” projects. The highest rent levels are consistently recorded in the so-called Big Five markets. Effective rents are under pressure in regions with elevated vacancy levels, where owners offer incentive packages for tenants.
Looking ahead, we expect current trends to continue. The Polish warehouse market is transitioning from a phase of rapid expansion to a more mature stage, characterized by strategic investments tailored to real demand.
As available supply tightens, lease renewals are likely to continue to dominate the demand structure. New transactions will be more selective, with a greater emphasis on expansions. Developers will remain cautious about starting new projects, focusing on major markets and those with the lowest vacancy rates. In locations with higher levels of vacant space, owners will be increasingly willing to offer incentives to attract potential tenants.
– Dorota Koseska, Director, Industrial Agency, Avison Young
Tenant perspective
From the tenants’ perspective, the current situation in the warehouse market is more balanced than during the peak of the investment boom. Increased availability of space in some locations provides more choice and a stronger negotiating position, prompting tenants to consider various options, from lease renegotiations to relocation to modern buildings with higher technical standards.
Tenant decisions are increasingly analytical, with companies focusing on total operating costs rather than just the base rent. Energy costs, building efficiency, and warehouse functionality are of key importance. Tenants are also increasingly looking for modern buildings offering higher technical parameters, such as greater floor load capacity, higher power connection, or the possibility of implementing warehouse automation.
Strategic lease planning is becoming the standard, resulting in more frequent lease renegotiations or optimization of occupied space, rather than quick decisions about relocation. More and more companies are starting market analysis even 18–24 months before the expiration of their current contract to increase their negotiating position and secure the best available locations.
Companies are analyzing their logistics needs and available market options more thoroughly, which means that decision-making and negotiation processes take longer than during the period of greatest market dynamics.
What trends are starting to shape this year?
New supply and demand balance
After a period of very dynamic market growth in 2020–2022, the warehouse sector is now entering a phase of more sustainable development. Developers have limited the number of speculative projects in recent years. At the same time, demand remains stable.
As a result, more and more new investments are being implemented only after securing a tenant in a pre-let or build-to-suit formula, which limits the risk of project implementation without confirmed demand.
Automation is changing warehouse design
The progressing automation of logistics processes and the growing importance of robotic systems mean that warehouses are being designed in an increasingly technologically advanced way. New facilities take into account higher requirements regarding power capacity, floor load capacity, storage height, or IT infrastructure. In many cases, the possibility of installing automatic storage systems or logistics robots is considered at the building design stage.
Specialization of logistics locations
With the development of the market, there is an increasing specialization of the functions of individual logistics regions. In the largest agglomerations, the importance of urban warehouses and last-mile distribution centers, which handle fast deliveries to consumers, is growing. In turn, regions with a strong industrial base are developing as locations for production projects and warehouses supporting industrial and assembly processes.
Warehouse as production infrastructure
Manufacturing companies and enterprises conducting more advanced logistics processes are playing an increasingly important role in the demand structure. Consequently, there is a growing demand for facilities offering higher technical parameters, including greater floor load capacity, the possibility of installing overhead cranes, higher power connection, or separated production zones. In many cases, the warehouse ceases to serve only a storage function and becomes an integral part of the production infrastructure.
“Quality gap” in the warehouse market
The differentiation between modern Class A facilities and older warehouse stock is becoming increasingly visible in the market. Tenants are increasingly choosing buildings that meet ESG standards, offering higher energy efficiency and better working conditions for employees. Older facilities, especially those located outside major logistics corridors, may require modernization or repositioning to remain competitive.
Global supply chain restructuring
Globally, one of the most important trends remains the reorganization of supply chains. Companies are increasingly diversifying production and moving some operations closer to sales markets to increase supply security. Nearshoring and reshoring processes are strengthening the role of Central and Eastern Europe, including Poland, as an important production and logistics base for the European market.
Source: Avison Young