Abstract: The paper proposes a technology for systemic modeling of a multi-purpose transport hub, based on two fundamental aggregate indicators: forecasting (planning) the facility’s operations as a unified logistics system while simultaneously forecasting variables on a “step-by-step” basis. INTRODUCTION A transport hub (TH) is a dynamic system whose situational function depends on a significant number of variables. Therefore, the technology for modeling multi-purpose transport complexes, which also includes the TH, should be based on two interrelated indicators: forecasting (planning) the TH’s operations as a unified logistics system with simultaneous forecasting of variables on a “step-by-step” basis. It should be emphasized that a forecast can be systemic if at least m characteristic variables of a given system are forecasted simultaneously. These variables are forecasted simultaneously “step-by-step”. In doing so, one of the fundamental flaws of a single-time forecast is eliminated – the arguments of the forecasting equations do not “age” (they possess the latest time-counting indices), which is a very important factor in the case of modeling multi-purpose (multimodal) THs.
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It is known that a multiple forecast can be based on algebraic, differential, or integral equations [1,6].
To obtain long-term differential forecasts, an important factor is determining the stability of the system’s behavior. The most common methods for determining the stability range are Lyapunov methods and the Hurwitz-Routh criteria [4]. (…)
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Source: Logistyka Magazine