Although diesel prices in Poland have fallen to levels not seen since mid-March 2026, the transport industry continues to operate under conditions of high uncertainty. Global logistics companies are maintaining fuel surcharges added to transport services, reaching as much as 20 percent of the transport value, and the Polish government has extended protective mechanisms until June 15, including reduced VAT and excise duty on fuels. At the same time, the OPEC+ decision to increase production quotas from July does not guarantee an actual increase in oil supply, which shows that the market is still far from stabilization.
Fuel prices in Poland changed last week: Pb95 gasoline became 12 groszy per liter cheaper, while diesel fuel became 16 groszy per liter cheaper, reaching price levels last recorded in mid-March.
Brent crude began the analyzed period on Monday, June 1, at USD 94.98 per barrel. During the session, it rose above USD 97, then fell to around USD 93 on Thursday following reports of a possible de-escalation of the conflict. On Monday, it rose again after another missile exchange between Iran and Israel, and is currently hovering near USD 93 per barrel. On the chart, this looks like ordinary price volatility. In reality, each reversal reflected a complete change in the valuation of the risk associated with the conflict.
Inventories are melting. Brent below 100 dollars does not mean calm
The oil market is currently not following a clear trend, but is constantly recalculating the probability of various scenarios. Every diplomatic gesture lowers the risk premium, and every military event restores it to its previous level. For carriers, this is a more difficult environment than a simple rise in fuel prices. The problem is not just that diesel is expensive; the problem is that cost calculations can become outdated after just two weeks. This is one of the reasons why, in the first week of June, some logistics operators updated the applicable fuel surcharges added to transport costs. Despite the drops in diesel prices, companies are still keeping them at a relatively high level, pointing to the persistent volatility of the energy market and uncertainty regarding future fuel costs.
Meanwhile, the physical balance of the market is deteriorating in a way that the price chart reflects with a delay. Analyst Kurt Cobb, writing for OilPrice, points out that commercial oil inventories around the world are being rapidly depleted, and the market is gradually approaching levels at which reserves cease to act as a safety buffer. Cobb’s scenario should not be treated as the most likely forecast, but he accurately points out the main tension in the market: the closer the system is to minimum
operating inventory levels, the more sensitive it becomes to any new negative information. These are not just theoretical considerations. During an investor conference, a senior ExxonMobil representative stated that inventory levels are approaching values not previously seen in the modern history of the market.
This is where the discrepancy arises between the price chart and the reality faced by the logistics industry. Brent may fall by two dollars in one afternoon following news of a ceasefire. However, this does not mean that additional barrels of oil are entering the market or that diesel prices are automatically falling. Refining margins for middle distillates react primarily to product availability, not just the price of the raw material. If inventories remain low, diesel prices may remain high even when the price of Brent crude falls.
Added to this is the OPEC+ decision of June 7. Seven member states approved the fourth consecutive monthly increase in production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day starting in July. On paper, this is a reassuring signal, but in practice, its significance is limited. A production quota does not yet mean actual oil delivery. Bloomberg described this decision as largely symbolic, which captures the situation well: producers are holding their positions, waiting for the restoration of normal supply route operations. Until that happens, the numbers written in the documents do not increase the real supply on the market.
To all these factors, there is the risk that until recently remained on the margins, and today is moving to the center of attention — information. The oil market does not wait for the truth to be confirmed. It reacts to the first piece of news that seems credible enough. In recent weeks, footage of alleged attacks has been widely circulated, which later turned out to be material from military simulation games. However, prices reacted before the corrections appeared. A short-term rise in quotations can be triggered today by an event that never happened, and its effects can be felt in fuel purchase costs. For carriers, this is an even more difficult environment than a simple rise in prices. The problem is not just the high price of diesel, but that cost calculations can become outdated after just two weeks.
Outlook for the next two weeks
The price of Brent crude can easily fall after any news of a ceasefire. However, it can just as quickly return to previous levels if the period of calm turns out to be short-lived. A drop in oil prices alone does not yet mean relief for carriers. Inventories, diesel prices, and the situation on supply routes are of key importance. And in these areas, each passing week has so far brought more questions than answers.
Source: Malcom Finance Polska