Forecast for the development of Danube navigation
<\/strong>Between 1995 and 2005, freight transport performance in the EU increased by 30% (from 1,837 billion to 2,376 billion tonne-kilometres), and it is predicted that it could even double in the following decade. Therefore, there is a need to ensure the fluidity of trade exchange, while simultaneously reducing the existing negative effects of unsustainable transport development in Europe. As shown in Figure 1, road transport – which causes the greatest negative environmental impact – handles over 70% of land transport performance. Such unsustainable transport development may pose a serious threat to the competitiveness of the European economy and its successful further development. Hence, the optimization of cooperation between different modes of transport is currently seen as an essential condition for increasing the efficiency and sustainability of the transport system in Europe, and thus for improving the logistical support of economic entities, and – in effect – improving the competitiveness of the European economy.<\/p>
Following the accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the European Union in January 2007, 18 EU countries now have inland waterways (39.4 thousand km of navigable waterways), 12 of which have connections to the international network. The accession of these Danube countries to European structures, in the context of problems related to unsustainable transport development, creates a great opportunity to start a new stage in the development of inland navigation in Europe. In addition to the Rhine, the Danube waterway may in the future constitute an important communication axis in the European inland waterway system, especially in terms of improving trade between Western and South-Eastern Europe. Such prospects are created by the Main-Danube Canal, opened in 1992 (which enables navigation from Rotterdam on the North Sea to Constanta on the Black Sea), as well as the stabilizing political situation in the Balkans region.<\/p>
The need for wider use of this waterway in the development of international economic ties was also recognized at the forum of the European Conference of Ministers of Transport (ECMT), where the concept of pan-European transport corridors was approved in Helsinki in 1997. This idea was born in the face of infrastructure problems in Central and Eastern European countries, which constituted a significant barrier to shaping conditions for the free movement of goods and people in relations with Western European countries. Out of the ten adopted transport corridors, Corridor VII was designated with the Danube waterway as the primary infrastructure link (Figure 2). The actions of the ECMT are therefore an expression of recognizing the role of this waterway as an important communication system between the countries of Western and South-Eastern Europe.<\/p>
In light of the factors presented, positive prospects for the use of the Danube are emerging, not only in the traditional sphere of inland navigation, but especially as an important link in the multimodal transport system. These prospects are confirmed by research conducted in 2004 by the Austrian Institute for Regional Studies and Spatial Planning (ÖIR), which aimed to identify the scale of demand for transport along this waterway in relation to Austria by 2015. These studies were conducted for two variants (base and optimistic), taking into account:
– product range structure
– transport relations.<\/p>
Cargoes gravitating towards the Danube waterway were classified into three categories A, B, and C according to their level of technological advancement (Figure 3). Meanwhile, demand studies regarding transport relations on the Danube were conducted by linking the Austrian section with transport on the following sections:
– upper (Germany, Hungary, including connections with the Rhine),
– middle,
– lower (Croatia – Black Sea).
The research shows that transport in relations with Austria on all sections of this waterway will amount to 14 million tonnes in the base variant, and 27.3 million tonnes in the optimistic variant (Table 1). Compared to 2000 – taken as a reference point – this means an increase in transport of about 30% in the base variant and an almost 2.5-fold increase in the optimistic variant. Such a significant projected increase in transport by 2015 in the optimistic variant is the result of assuming the modernization of this waterway and the implementation of modern logistics solutions and telematic technologies in navigation.<\/p>
Peer-reviewed article, from the journal “Logistyka” 6\/2007.
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