Abstract: International aviation organizations impose an obligation on Poland to define the so-called acceptable level of risk for aviation accidents. Determining this value requires statistical data on accidents. However, these have not occurred in recent years, or the sample size is insufficient. This article signals a method based on forecasting the number of accidents using available information on aviation incidents. This method can be effective and efficient when there is a regular relationship between a serious incident and an aviation accident.The article proposes a way to search for this relationship through simulation analysis of appropriate models of a serious incident and an aviation accident. Petri nets were used to model these aviation events.
1. INTRODUCTION
Air transport is a complex system combining advanced technical systems, operators (controllers, pilots), and procedures. All these elements operate in a large spatial dispersion, but are closely linked and interact with each other, with the time horizon of these interactions being very short.
In air traffic, risk is traditionally identified with aviation accidents, which usually result in a large number of fatalities and great financial losses. The severity of the consequences is the reason why safety has been a key value in this branch of transport from the very beginning.
Polish aviation law defines three categories of aviation events [5]:
− aviation accident as an event associated with the operation of an aircraft, which occurred with people on board, during which any person suffered at least serious bodily injury or the aircraft was damaged, − serious aviation incident as an incident whose circumstances indicate that an aviation accident almost occurred (e.g., a significant violation of separation between aircraft without control over the situation by both the aircraft commander and the controller), − aviation incident as an event associated with the operation of an aircraft other than an aviation accident, which has or could have had an adverse effect on the safety of operations (e.g., a significant reduction in separation but with control over the situation). (…)
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Source: Logistyka Magazine