The Polish CEP (courier, express, and parcel) market grew by 10% in 2015, reaching a value of PLN 4.5 billion. This year, growth will be even higher, at 14%, and the market value will reach PLN 5.1 billion, according to estimates by experts from the consulting firm PwC in the report “Growth prospects for the courier, express, and parcel (CEP) market in Poland until 2018”.
According to data from the PwC report “Growth prospects for the courier, express, and parcel (CEP) market in Poland until 2018”, the growth in revenue levels on the Polish CEP market between 2011 and 2015 was primarily driven by Poland’s general economic development, as well as higher exports than before (especially to European countries) and the e-commerce industry, which is generating an increasing number of shipments. The total value of estimated revenues on the Polish CEP market in 2015 amounted to PLN 4.5 billion and was 32% higher than in 2011. International services (especially economic ones) showed higher revenue growth dynamics than domestic services. The reason for this was a significant increase in international volume and price pressure prevailing in the domestic market.
In 2015, the B2B segment accounted for 55% of revenue and 45% of the total CEP market volume (in 2011, these indicators were 60% and 54%, respectively). In turn, the B2C segment currently accounts for 35% of revenue and 46% of the market volume (in 2011, 28% and 37%, respectively). The last segment, C2X (shipments sent by private individuals), accounted for 10% of revenue and 8% of the CEP market volume in Poland in 2015 (in 2011, 12% and 9%, respectively).
PwC experts point out that 2015 was another year in which the number of shipments sent to or by private individuals exceeded half of the total domestic parcel market volume – last year it was 56%, while in 2011 it was at the level of 47%. The biggest impact on the change in this structure was the rapidly developing e-commerce market, which generates a much larger number of shipments to private individuals or sent by them.
Further growth of the CEP market in the coming years
Due to the continuously developing e-commerce industry and the growth of exports, the Polish CEP market will also be in the black in the coming years. As PwC experts estimate, in the years 2016-2018, the growth of CEP market revenues in Poland will be at the level of 12% y/y, and the market value will reach PLN 6.4 billion in 2018, which means approx. 440 million parcels (in 2015 there were 313 million).
The greater dynamics of the CEP market value in Poland will be influenced by the forecasted lower price pressure in the country. In turn, in the international services market, PwC experts predict a decrease in the average price of a parcel in the coming years, which will be the result of a change in the structure of export parcels in favor of an increase in the share of economic parcels, characterized by a lower price per shipment.
The changes taking place in the parcel market are heavily influenced by the e-commerce industry and the expectations of new, “digital” customers. Therefore, CEP market operators will work in the coming years on implementing advanced technological tools and so-called last-mile solutions, looking for the most effective model for delivering shipments. In addition to solutions already in operation (e.g., click & collect, parcel in motion, parcels at gas stations or in parcel lockers), new ones will certainly appear, aimed at simplifying and facilitating the collection of shipments.
– The traditional courier company model practically no longer exists, because there are almost no traditional B2B senders left. Companies are investing in new sales channels, creating solutions that make it easier to pick up purchases in various places. The pace of adapting tools and cost structures to this diversity will determine success in the CEP market in the future – says Grzegorz Urban, Deputy Director in the Business Advisory Department at PwC.