The condition of Polish transport and logistics
<\/strong>The high sensitivity of transport and logistics to economic downturns caused a clear deterioration in the situation of these economic sectors during the economic slowdown in Poland. After a record-breaking 2008, when revenues from the sale of transport and logistics services, concerning both cargo and passengers, across all transport units exceeded 132 billion PLN, 2009 saw an 8% decline in revenue to 121.5 billion PLN. The expected revenue level for 2010 will still be lower than in 2008 and should not exceed 130 billion PLN. This means, however, that logistics generates over 10.5% of the gross domestic product, and its share in GDP shows an upward trend.<\/p>
The situation of companies in the TSL (Transport, Spedition, Logistics) industry, i.e., those operating in the market of cargo transport services and warehousing (Figure 1), was slightly better. It is estimated that in 2010, revenues including receipts for cargo transport, luggage, mail, transshipment, forwarding, storage, and warehousing of cargo, as well as other services related to transport handling in total transport units (at constant prices), increased by 5.4% compared to the previous year (in 2009, there was a 1.1% increase). Gross financial results of TSL companies were significantly higher compared to the weak results of the previous year (an increase of almost 80%), as were net results (more than a threefold increase). It is preliminarily estimated that the revenues of companies in 2010 from cargo transport and warehousing exceeded 70 billion PLN (Figure 2). Taking into account that the value of internal logistics aimed at satisfying the companies’ own needs amounts to about 80% of the value of market logistics, it can be ventured that the total value of Polish cargo (goods) logistics in 2010 was at the level of 127 billion PLN.
It should be noted that in 2009, a decrease in average employment in transport and warehousing of people and goods to the level of 694,000 people was recorded, while it is estimated that last year employment should have increased by 1.9% to 707,000.<\/p>
An important indicator reflecting the situation of the TSL industry is the volume of cargo transport defined by transport work measured in tonne-kilometers. In 2008, all types of transport performed 4.4% more transport work than the year before. The situation deteriorated in 2009, as according to the Central Statistical Office (GUS), total transport work decreased by about 5%. The decline occurred in rail transport (-10%) and maritime transport (-15%), with growth mainly in road transport (+4%). Based on preliminary GUS results, it is predicted that the results of 2010 will be significantly better than the previous year, mainly due to good results in road transport (Figure 3).<\/p>
Rail transport
<\/strong>According to GUS data, 239.2 million tons of cargo were transported by rail in the entire year 2009, which is 10% less than the year before. This was the result of a decrease in international transport by about 30% and domestic transport by about 3%. Also in that year, a significant decline in revenue, exceeding 19%, was recorded in this segment of the TSL market. It is predicted that this unfavorable trend will continue in 2010.
As a result of liberalization, competitiveness in the rail cargo transport services market has increased, resulting in almost 40 carriers actively providing transport services by December 2010, capturing almost 30% of this market. However, the main goal of liberalization, i.e., increasing the share of rail cargo transport in total transport, has not been achieved, as this share continues to show a downward trend (Figure 3). According to private carriers, the market development is not favored by the high level of fees for using rail infrastructure, which is one of the highest in Europe. In some EU countries, these fees are fully financed from the state budget, which effectively improves the profitability of rail transport. Another problem is the poor condition and underinvestment of rail infrastructure, which worsens the competitive conditions of road transport against rail.<\/p>
Analysts predict that within just a few years, the rail freight market may be dominated by two large national carriers, namely PKP CARGO SA and DB Schenker – a new rail carrier on the Polish market, backed by the German giant Deutsche Bahn. The Germans signal that they intend to take over 25% of the Polish cargo transport market by 2012. In total, there is a fear that the market will be dominated by the two largest state operators, to the detriment of both customers and smaller carriers.<\/p>
The article comes from the magazine “Logistyka” 3\/2011.<\/p>
L2011-3s5s7.pdf<\/a>