Formalization of subjective uncertainty

In many decision-making situations, uncertainty prevails, referred to as subjective uncertainty, which makes it impossible to use the methods of classical probability theory. Hence the need to apply methods for formalizing subjective uncertainty for inference. The article presents the essence of selected methods for formalizing subjective uncertainty, pointing to the possibilities of their practical application. An example of applying the imprecise probability method (Dempster-Shafer theory) to synthesize inference based on expert opinions is presented.Risk, safety, success, and decision-making are associated with uncertainty.
In many decision-making situations, uncertainty prevails, referred to as subjective uncertainty (for example, incomplete knowledge), which is why inference using the methods of classical probability theory is not possible. Hence the need to apply methods that allow for the formalization of subjective uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) for inference.
The appropriate interpretation of the concept of “uncertainty” in the processes of designing and operating complex systems is particularly important. (…)

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