The title itself should put the reader in a positive frame of mind. Since Poland’s accession to the European Union led to an economic revival, an increase in trade, and an inflow of direct investment, the effects in the field of transport and logistics should surely be equally positive. Let us therefore attempt to balance the costs and benefits of this process, taking 2006 as the last year included in the comparisons.
Contrary to earlier expectations, the transport intensity of the economy, measured in tonnes or tonne-kilometres per unit of GDP, did not decrease. In 2003, a 3.6 percent GDP growth was recorded; 2004 was a breakthrough year due to Poland’s accession to the European Union and ended with a 5.3 percent GDP growth. In 2005, GDP increased by 3.5% compared to the previous year, and in 2006 by 5.8%. Such high GDP growth dynamics were caused by increased trade between Poland and the “old” European Union countries, primarily leading to an increase in exports. In 2005-2006, another factor for GDP growth was investment in the domestic market. However, the growth dynamics of transport in tonnes and tonne-kilometres were higher than the GDP growth dynamics. The exception was 2005, when transport measured in tonne-kilometres fell compared to the previous year. As a result, the transport intensity of the economy increased instead of decreasing. This phenomenon can be assessed negatively from a macroeconomic point of view, but it also proves that transport and logistics services were developing at a faster pace than the economy as a whole.
In the period after Poland’s accession to the European Union, road transport volumes increased systematically. In 2006, commercial road transport carried 3.2% more tonnes of cargo than the year before, and transport work performed was 16.2% higher. International transport, in particular, increased (by over 41% in tonnes and over 35% in tonne-kilometres). Thanks to this, the share of international transport in total transport increased in tonnes from 6% in 2005 to 8% in 2006, and in tonne-kilometres from 45% to 54%. It is worth mentioning that in international transport, Poland has a 10 percent share of transport in the entire European Union and occupies the fourth position behind Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands. The number of trucks increased in 2006 by 3.1% compared to the previous year. The number of tractor units increased by 15.6% in 2006, which was influenced by increased demand for these vehicles, especially from transport companies carrying out international transport. Road transport was characterized by a high level of competition. A concentration of this industry or the exit of weaker enterprises was expected. However, in the analyzed period, both the number of companies holding a license for road transport and the number of trucks increased. As a result, competition intensified and a consumer market emerged with a visible oversupply of transport services. This was a macroeconomically favorable phenomenon, as customers still had access to relatively cheap transport. As a result, transport costs did not contribute to an increase in inflation or the general costs of business activity. Thanks to the lifting of the ban on transport between EU member states and the lack of border checks, the efficiency of international transport in Poland increased. At the same time, their profitability fell as a result of rising costs caused by higher fuel prices, driver wages, and, in international transport, the introduction of road tolls in Germany and the high exchange rate of the zloty against the euro. Rates at that time, due to strong competition, remained at an unchanged level. Many companies in this industry are currently operating on the verge of profitability. Of course, it was not Poland’s accession to the Union that caused the deterioration of the economic results of enterprises, especially since the fears of a threat to the Polish market from carriers from other “new” EU member states did not materialize. The causes were objective (rising operating costs), but also subjective—the excessive optimism of entrepreneurs regarding the conditions for doing business in this industry.
The article comes from the magazine “Logistyka” 2/2008.