The article participated in the 3rd edition of the “Piórem Logistyka” Competition.
INTRODUCTION
Knowledge, quality, the development of information technologies, as well as the globalization of all activities, are charting a new path for enterprise management. These paradigms of future enterprise management also enable revolutionary changes in the sphere of logistics and supply chain management. When analyzing logistics processes, one cannot forget the dominant role of the customer. It is the customer who constitutes the most important link (entity) in the supply chain, and ensuring their service standards becomes the primary goal of the 21st-century enterprise. Customer needs directly affect the volume of sales of goods and services, which determine the level of profit achieved by the enterprise. Considering the level of customer service, it must be stated that the higher the level, the higher the costs of providing this service. Maximizing customer service and minimizing service costs is a key problem facing enterprise logistics. Given the comparability of technology and the similar quality of products, goods, and services offered by modern market enterprises, their main advantage in winning customers includes new qualitative features in controlling logistics processes. The basis for this is ensuring service standards, which requires continuous improvement of the quantitative methods used to manage all phases of enterprise logistics.
1. “MONTE CARLO” SIMULATION MODEL
The purpose of the article is to analyze and describe the operation of a tool for controlling order quantity, developed based on the “Monte Carlo” computer simulation model. Before the analysis, it is reasonable to ask: Why, with existing computer packages supporting logistics decision-making processes in an enterprise, would a model using the “Monte Carlo” simulation method be the best tool? The “Monte Carlo” computer simulation counteracts the occurrence of the so-called Forrester effect (disturbances in the supply chain), which consists of the propagation of amplified demand changes in the supply chain. This effect is the cause of many negative phenomena, such as: large fluctuations in order quantities, inventory levels, desynchronization of goods deliveries, and periodic overloading and underloading of transport means. Another problem destabilizing the supply chain is information systems supporting management. They are taking over more and more decision-making functions. Most MRP, MRP II, and ERP class systems have mechanisms for automatically generating typical, repetitive decisions, e.g., regarding current orders. In logistics supply chains, control information (e.g., order quantities) generated by information systems according to algorithms defined within them is appearing more and more frequently. Such a situation, with poorly selected algorithms, deepens the problems associated with the multiplication of disturbances in the supply chain.