What were the most significant changes in the road transport market in 2017?
Piotr M. Sikorski, DHL Freight GmbH, Area North Manager, Management Board Member: In 2017, we had the opportunity to observe a series of fundamental changes that permanently and long-term shaped the technical and boundary conditions for the TSL industry. This does not mean that we will enjoy stability in the coming years, as the progressive digitalization of the global economy has not yet exhausted its development potential. There is still no light at the end of the tunnel regarding the mass introduction of hydrogen propulsion in Europe, independent of electricity produced, for example, in Poland in coal-fired power plants, whose environmental friendliness is incomparably lower than that of nuclear power plants. Electric trucks, due to their range of up to 200 km and payload capacity of less than 10 tons, are suitable only for urban distribution. A positive phenomenon to note is the relatively stable price of petroleum-based fuels.
Technical change: “long” combinations – the automotive industry offers so-called “long” combinations, i.e., with a total length of 17.8 m for a semi-trailer combination and 24 m for a combination with a trailer. This is nothing new only for the Swedes, as vehicles of this length have been used there for decades. The discussion about allowing “long” combinations also stirs up huge emotions. Local authorities, deeply frightened, speak up on behalf of their residents, expressing concerns about “road elephants” rampaging through narrow residential streets, as if the currently permitted “workhorses” could enter there without restrictions. Carriers have doubts about a situation where a 17.8 m combination returning from abroad will compete for domestic return cargo with a 16.5 m combination. It is worth recalling that some 30 years ago, the transition from 12.5 m to 13.6 m semi-trailers did not cause such emotions (the length of the tractor does not change significantly, so the critical factor is considered to be the loading length of the semi-trailer or the motor vehicle and trailer). Even today, we are talking about just 3 more Euro pallets. I remember that for a long time both standards functioned on the market and found their cargo. The old 12.5 m ones were eliminated by wear and tear, not by EU directives or other administrative moves. The Dutch tested them earlier, the Germans allowed these combinations for operation, and Poland – I haven’t heard any discussion…
Change in boundary conditions: dramatic driver shortage – the transition to professional armies and the high costs of obtaining a truck driving license, as well as the real prospect of introducing autonomous vehicles, which calls into question the sense of pursuing a profession that will disappear before retirement, have caused a more than 10% increase in driver wages (data from the German market according to DLSV). There are no more reserves in the European Union; attracting drivers from, for example, Ukraine is difficult and will not lead to closing the growing gap. The result of this shortage is a limitation in the supply of transport capacity and rising costs of purchasing it, which in turn led to an unprecedented willingness of customers to accept freight rate increases of up to several percent. Additionally, the good economic climate, and thus growing production and consumption, increased the scope of transport needs. As a result, in the fourth quarter of 2017, delivery delays resulting from a lack of transport capacity began to grow rapidly. Since the problem affects the entire TSL industry, changing the logistics operator has ceased to be a solution for customers. From the customer’s point of view, it seems that the asset-light business model is losing to the asset-heavy model – at least until autonomous vehicles enter the market.