For the above reasons, it seems justified to undertake research aimed at formulating answers to such questions as:
- is it at all justified to speak of a crisis in the TSL industry
- and if so, where should one look for evidence of its existence, the strength of its impact, signs of its approach, ways out, time and place of duration, etc.
Given that this is likely the first time that TSL industry entities have had to function in conditions of a crisis comparable to the Great Depression of 1929–1935, when the concept of logistics in relation to the economic sphere did not yet exist, any attempts to find answers to the above questions can probably also be considered the first attempts to apply the theory of economic crisis to the field of knowledge about forwarding, transport, and logistics; so that this theory does not merely perform an imitative function, but anticipates practice. It is with this general thought that this article is presented, setting a specific goal of presenting the results of partial research on the phenomenon of the crisis in the TSL industry in Poland. As part of this goal, the results of literature research aimed at defining the concept of the TSL services market crisis are presented, which in turn determines the scope of statistical analysis and empirical research and, consequently, the conclusions drawn from them.
Results of literature research
The general concept of a crisis (from the Greek krísis – turning point) is usually translated by such synonyms as a breakthrough moment, a decisive moment, or a turning point. Its general meaning is detailed by specialized concepts of crisis in various areas of life and science, for example, a crisis: social, political, governmental; of a state, an enterprise, a family; in medicine, in economics, in sociology, on the stock market, etc. In the economic sphere, a crisis is defined as “a phenomenon of the collapse of the balance between supply and demand for goods and services”. This definition seems to be very useful, especially from the point of view of empirical research, because it contains a suggestion to look for features whose detection can be considered proof of identifying an economic crisis, while their absence would be equivalent to stating the absence of signs of a crisis. The result of work on establishing the most complete possible set of features for identifying an economic crisis is the following list, namely:
- galloping inflation turning into hyperinflation or, conversely, a drop in prices (deflation)
- a drop in production
- a drop in real wages
- a drop in employment
- an increase in unemployment
- a drop in income
- a drop in consumption
- a drop in GDP
- a reduction in social spending
- a reduction in spending on science and healthcare
- an increase in fiscal burdens
- an increase in the budget deficit
- an increase in the fiscal deficit
- an increase in the trade deficit
- a downward trend in the state’s tax budget revenues
- a drop in the dynamics (slowing down) of the rate of economic growth
- a slowing down of the dynamics of industrial production growth
- a lowering of the pace of exports
- a reduction in investment outlays.
This set is detailed by a threshold value, allowing for a fairly precise determination of the point of appearance or disappearance of a crisis. It is proposed to adopt the common assumption that “whether there is a crisis or not is decided by economic indicators, i.e., economic quantities characterizing the economy – for example, at least two quarters of GDP decline”.
Due to the prevailing belief that the global economic crisis was caused by the US financial crisis, research was conducted in this area. Its results indicate that a financial crisis is considered a special type of economic crisis, usually defined as the collapse of the financial and banking market, and which, due to its importance, is often mentioned alongside the economic crisis. In particular, this concept is applied to the currently ongoing financial crisis caused by a combination of unrealistic social expectations, irresponsible behavior of financial market entities (Goldman Sachs), and erroneous political, legislative, and consequently governmental decisions that led to the collapse of the high-risk mortgage market (subprime mortgage) in the United States. The cutoff date for the start of this crisis is considered to be September 15, 2008, which is the day the fourth-largest financial corporation, Lehman Brothers, declared bankruptcy.
Due to the global nature of the economic crisis caused by its financial origins, its reach included, among others, the economies of EU countries, including Poland, as well as the TSL services sector. Adopting the understanding of the TSL services sector as a type of economic activity consisting of offering and implementing on the market, i.e., in relation to other entities, services: moving people and material goods (transport), organizing the transport of cargo (forwarding), and comprehensive management and implementation of all flow processes, including transport, forwarding, and warehousing (logistics), a crisis in this sector is defined by adapting the signs of the economic and financial crisis to the field of TSL activities in the period from September 15, 2008, to the present.
The article comes from the journal “Logistyka” 1/2010.