One of the more common unconventional methods of warfare is terrorism. Although this phenomenon has been known for centuries, it only became a significant element of international relations and one of the main threats to national and international security in the second half of the 20th century.
The targets against which terrorists carry out attacks are very diverse. However, four basic spheres most vulnerable to terrorist attacks can be identified: government authorities, police and military, the economy, and the population. A spectacular terrorist attack can lead to multifaceted and extensive consequences, as confirmed by the attack on the World Trade Center carried out on September 11, 2001.
There is still a threat of a repeat attack that could have similarly large consequences. During the two-day APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) conference in Hanoi, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said: “A terrorist attack can bring the economies of countries and trade to a standstill, and this always results in great losses.” It is estimated that for 12 APEC countries (excluding the United States), closing US ports for 30 days would cause USD 160 billion in losses, which would be felt for 3 years.
Oil targets of terrorism
Crude oil, used to produce liquid fuels, is treated as the “blood of the modern economy,” which is supported by transport. Halting the transport of people and cargo very quickly paralyzes the operation of other sectors of the national economy. This phenomenon could be observed in Great Britain in 2000, when a strike by tanker drivers used in the delivery of gasoline and diesel fuel from refineries to gas stations threatened the functioning of the entire country within 3-4 days. Research conducted by the US Department of Energy shows that a crisis caused by a lack of crude oil supplies would be significantly more serious in its consequences than stopping the supply of any other energy raw material.
Therefore, it is dangerous for the functioning of the modern world for terrorists to attack oil storage bases or transshipment facilities, and especially dangerous – means of transport for oil and petroleum products (Figure 1). Pipelines, being fixed installations and often running through different territories, are extremely vulnerable to attacks that can be carried out at any time and in different places. Artificial and natural narrow waterways are a source of congestion for maritime crude oil transport. The goal of an attack by terrorist groups may be to block strategic shipping channels or straits by sinking tankers in them and causing the largest possible oil spill.
Terrorist attacks on oil supply chains
In Iraq, a total of 465 attacks on the oil sector were carried out over five years (Figure 2). After the attacks carried out on August 9, 2004, when the southern pipeline was closed, Iraqi oil exports decreased from 1.9 million to 0.9 million barrels per day.
Sabotage actions against pipelines also directly affect the volume of liquid fuel production in Iraq (Photo 1). If attackers damage several pipelines at the same time, the daily production of, for example, the Daura refinery drops from 100,000 to 15,000 barrels. There are days when, as a result of concentric terrorist attacks, refinery production is halted. Damage to just one pipeline results in an average of USD 300,000 in losses per day. In Iraq, repairing a destroyed section of a pipeline takes a week. To maximize losses, terrorists blow up the same main line no earlier than eight days after the previous attack. This situation is exacerbated by the lack of specialists who could repair, start up, and maintain oil installations on an ongoing basis, because before the war, more than 50% of the technical staff employed in the Iraqi oil industry came from other countries. Therefore, significant forces had to be engaged to protect Iraqi pipeline main lines from attacks.
The article comes from the magazine “Logistyka” 3/2010.