Long-term forecasts have the characteristic that their accuracy depends on many factors, often difficult to predict in the long run. Unforeseen phenomena, such as the recent economic crisis, change the direction and pace of market development for several years, resulting in the need to verify assumptions and forecasts.
Looking at the Polish market for transport and logistics leasing, I can say with the conviction that comes from many years of trend analysis that it is very promising. The next 15-20 years should therefore be a period of its dynamic development. This is evidenced by many factors – both resulting from past trends and from comparisons with Western economies. Observing the behavior of key transport service recipients is also helpful. Currently, Poland is the leader of the transport industry in Central and Eastern Europe. Maintaining this position in the long term requires significant investment. First and foremost, the Polish fleet of transport vehicles is one of the oldest in the European Union. To remain competitive, modernization is necessary. An additional impulse for replacing old trucks with new ones will also be the legislative solutions introduced by successive countries, promoting ecological behavior and the use of new technologies. Greater demand for new rolling stock will also stem from the development of the Polish transport industry. The takeover of cabotage transport by our domestic carriers and the increase in the number of Western freight forwarders in Poland will be significant factors forcing the development of truck fleets. Both modernization and fleet expansion will be long-term trends. Due to the significant value of the investments to be incurred, they will be spread over several or even a dozen or so years.