The sharp reaction of the oil market, which brought the largest single-day price drop since the Gulf War, does not mean a quick return to stability. While futures contracts immediately discounted the change in the geopolitical situation, the actual logistics of supply remain disrupted and will feel the effects of tensions for many months to come. Shipowners have not yet returned to standard operations, waiting for credible security guarantees, and Iran is announcing the introduction of rules and fees for transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Against this background, fuel prices in Poland are beginning to diverge; gasoline (Pb95) is getting cheaper, while diesel is becoming significantly more expensive, and although a partial convergence of price levels is possible in the coming weeks, diesel will remain more expensive in the short term.
Fuel prices in Poland diverged even further last week. Gasoline (Pb95) became 7 groszy per liter cheaper, while diesel went in the opposite direction, becoming 14 groszy more expensive. The discrepancy also persisted this week: as of Wednesday, April 8, gasoline prices remained at the Sunday level, while diesel became another 2 groszy per liter more expensive, which highlights the growing difference between these fuels.
The situation related to the conflict in Iran changed abruptly on the night of April 7 to 8, 2026. The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which about one-fifth of global trade in oil, refined products, and LNG normally flows. The reaction of the oil markets was immediate and historically unique. It was the largest single-day drop in oil prices since the 1991 Gulf War. The global Brent benchmark fell by about 13 percent to around USD 95 per barrel, and WTI to around USD 96, however, both remain significantly above the levels from before the outbreak of the conflict at the end of February.
Physical markets, however, will not stabilize as quickly as futures contracts, and supply chain disruptions will be felt for many months. It is still unclear under exactly what conditions transport through the strait will be fully restored in a safe and operational manner. Shipowners have not yet resumed normal operations and are awaiting concrete security guarantees. Furthermore, Iran is signaling its intention to regulate and charge fees for transit through the strait. In practice, it is still unknown what exactly “opening the strait” means.
For example, on April 8, Iran halted the flow of tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, citing, according to the Iranian Fars agency, a violation of the recently signed two-week ceasefire by Israel. At the same time, the Iranian navy announced, as reported by Reuters, that transit through the strait is now dependent on prior approval from Iran, and vessels that do not obtain it may be attacked and destroyed. If peace negotiations lead to a lasting agreement and the strait is actually fully opened, diesel prices could fall more significantly within a few weeks.
Structural factors, however, remain unchanged: Europe’s dependence on imports, limited refining capacity, and the loss of supplies from Russia. Gasoline and diesel prices may partially converge in the coming weeks, but diesel will remain more expensive for some time. A rapid equalization of prices would only be possible if several conditions were met simultaneously, such as a lasting ceasefire, the real restoration of transport through the strait, and a simultaneous decrease in pressure on the European distillate market. For now, none of these conditions have been met in a stable manner.
Source: Malcom Finance in Poland