In 2021, Polish foreign trade recorded dynamic growth in turnover. The value of exported goods amounted to 285.8 billion euros, which was 19.1% higher than the year before. Imports recorded an even greater increase, which, according to preliminary data from Statistics Poland (GUS), amounted to 286.4 billion euros, exceeding the previous year’s result by 24.8%. In 2021, foreign trade not only recovered from the pandemic but also began to grow again. However, not to the same extent in all directions.
Assessing the past year for Polish foreign trade is difficult due to the anomaly that was the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020. It caused significant drops in turnover in the first months of the mass appearance of the coronavirus globally, which affected the weak export and import results.
– In 2021, we are observing large increases in the value of trade turnover due to the low base from 2020, when supply chains were broken and many industries had to suspend operations. Exports and imports slowed down, but in 2021 they gained momentum again. The current year will show what growth rate can be maintained – says Miroslav Novák, chief analyst at the payment institution Akcenta.
Great Britain outside the top three
The year 2021 brought not only a clear rebound in exports (by 19.1% y/y) but also changes to the list of the 10 countries to which Poland sends the most goods. For the first time since 2009, Great Britain was outside the top three most important sales markets, giving way to France. Germany and the Czech Republic remained in first and second place, respectively. Changes also occurred at the end of the list. Slovakia replaced Spain in 10th place. In turn, Polish goods exports recorded the largest increase in value in this ranking in the Italian direction (27.1% y/y).
– Trade relations with Great Britain have clearly weakened, the main reason for which is probably Brexit. Poland still sends a lot of products to the UK; last year their value, according to preliminary calculations by Statistics Poland, reached 14.5 billion euros, recording an increase of 5.8 percent year-on-year. However, the dynamics of sales in other markets are much higher. For the other countries in the top ten, it is double-digit, which clearly shows that Great Britain has lost its attractiveness for Polish companies, although, of course, this may be just a temporary effect of the change and the need to adapt to new rules in trade with this country – notes the Akcenta expert.
New year, new challenges
The year 2022 will show the actual condition of Polish foreign trade. The impact of the pandemic on the data will be much smaller. As the Akcenta analyst points out, the development of trade exchange in 2022 will depend on two key factors. Firstly, on how strong the demand side will be, i.e., whether companies will continue to have a sufficient number of foreign orders. Secondly, on how quickly they will be able to solve problems related to disrupted supply chains this year.
– In my opinion, the beginning of the year does not inspire much optimism. High consumer inflation is prompting central banks, including the NBP, to tighten monetary policy. As a result, the Polish zloty is strengthening, and this is bad news for exporters who earn more when the zloty is weak. It can also be expected that price increases for products and services, including electricity, will have a negative impact on companies. At the same time, high inflation will reduce real household income, which will affect demand. Finally, there is a risk of a possible further escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. On the other hand, among the positives, entrepreneurs hope that the pandemic is slowly coming to an end – predicts Miroslav Novák from Akcenta.