Representatives of the automotive industry in Poland are looking to the future with less, yet still visible, optimism. 36% of automotive representatives expect production in their factories to increase in the second half of this year, according to the latest report “MotoBarometer 2017. Sentiment in the automotive industry” prepared by Exact Systems.
Although this result is almost twice as weak as a year ago (68%), experts emphasize that there is no reason to fear that things are starting to go wrong in the Polish automotive industry. AutomotiveSuppliers.pl forecasts that in 2017 as a whole, the export of automotive production from Poland may increase by more than 10% year-on-year and exceed the record value of 26 billion euros. Greater optimism among manufacturers prevails among our neighbors – in Russia (60%), Slovakia (56%), and Germany (55%).
– The automotive industry is the fastest-growing branch of the Polish economy. Moreover, Poland is increasingly visible not only on the European but also on the global automotive map. Our companies are reaching further and further with their sales, not only to EU countries but also to Mexico, Brazil, or China. We are increasingly choosing markets with huge population potential for foreign expansion, which has a direct impact on domestic demand for cars. The best example is our company. China was the first non-European country we chose, and we started operations there in 2016. Within a year, we won several large contracts with both global and domestic manufacturers. While developing international cooperation, Poland cannot forget about other aspects important to our business. How long we will continue to witness prosperity in the automotive industry will be decided primarily by our country’s ability to adapt to the rapidly changing socio-economic environment. The challenges we face include, among others, increasing staff shortages, which we must fill on an ongoing basis, and the introduction of innovations related to electromobility. In order not to fall behind the competition from other countries, full cooperation between the Polish government and enterprises in the above areas is essential – says Jacek Opala, member of the board of Exact Systems S.A.
No reason to worry
Representatives of the automotive industry in Poland are no longer the biggest optimists among the surveyed countries when it comes to production. Only 1 in 3 respondents believes that production will increase by the end of the year, which is a result almost twice as weak as a year ago (68% of indications in 2016). Every fourth respondent is of the opinion that it will remain at a similar level as it is now. However, Rafał Orłowski, a partner at AutomotiveSuppliers.pl, reassures: – Many manufacturers, primarily automotive suppliers, are “consuming” previous investments. This can mainly explain the lower percentage of respondents compared to last year who declare an increase in production. On the other hand, a higher percentage of respondents declaring a decrease in production can be explained by the fact that some companies are implementing new products, which usually translates into a temporary decrease in volumes. Another reason should be sought in foreign markets, which are “to be or not to be” for most manufacturers in Poland. However, in my opinion, there is no fear that something bad is starting to happen in the automotive industry in Poland. For several years, the industry has been breaking new records every year, both in terms of production, sales, employment, and export value – says the expert from AutomotiveSuppliers.pl
Poland is no longer at the head of the automotive peloton, because there are more production optimists in Russia (60%), Slovakia (56%), and Germany (55%). The Russian automotive industry is starting to get back on track after several dozen months of declines. The Slovaks were most likely encouraged to such optimistic assessments by, among other things, winning the battle for the Jaguar Land Rover car factory. Slovakia already produces about 1 million cars a year, and when the premium car factory starts, this number will increase significantly. Representatives of the German automotive industry are also looking at the future through rose-colored glasses – for comparison, last year there were definitely fewer optimists, only 33%.
– Germany is the largest car manufacturer in Europe and one of the largest in the world. An important factor in maintaining this high position will be the development of new technologies with an emphasis on the production of electric vehicles. In the face of recent events related to diesel engines, many German manufacturers have accelerated the implementation of electric car projects, which will certainly contribute to the reorganization of the entire industry over the next several years – claims Sebastian Gos, General Manager, Exact Systems Germany.
In Romania, a similar percentage of automotive representatives are counting on larger orders as in Poland (31%). Only in the Czech Republic are slightly weaker moods visible – here only one in six respondents hopes for an increase in production, and one in three does not expect major changes.
Automotive in Poland dependent on abroad
The TOP 3 factors influencing the increase in production have not changed compared to 2016. The greatest impact on the increase in production is still exerted by orders from foreign partners, both existing and new – this was indicated by a total of 41% of companies. Every third representative of the automotive industry is counting on new orders from Polish partners – 32% of indications. 13% expect to establish cooperation with new car factories in countries neighboring Poland. Only 1% of respondents are counting on orders in connection with the opening of a new car factory.
The good condition of the automotive industry in Poland is primarily influenced by orders coming from abroad, which are growing year by year. According to data from AutomotiveSuppliers.pl, in the first half of 2017, the export of the automotive industry from Poland recorded a record value of over 13 billion euros, which gave an almost 10% increase year-on-year. We send the most automotive parts and accessories abroad, which account for almost 44% of our foreign sales. As for export destinations, the most important partners remain Germany (29% share), Italy is in second place with a 10% share, and the Czech Republic is in third place (8% share).
Research methodology
The study “MotoBarometer 2017. Sentiment in the automotive industry. Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, Russia, Romania, Slovakia” was conducted by Exact Systems on a targeted sample of representatives of companies from the automotive sector that are clients of Exact Systems. Among them are, among others, car manufacturers, subcontractors of parts and automotive components Tier I and Tier II, such as: wipers, car windows, roofs, steering columns, or safety elements. The sample size was 429 respondents from 6 countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Germany, Russia, Romania, Slovakia).
The study was carried out using the method of telephone interviews (CATI), online surveys, and individual surveys from April to July 2017.