Consulting firm Colliers International has published a report summarizing activity in the commercial real estate market in Poland in the third quarter of this year. The publication “Real Estate Market Overview – Q3 2015” also presents forecasts for the last quarter of this year for the office, warehouse, and retail markets.
Warehouse market
In the third quarter of 2015, projects with a total area of over 380,000 sqm were completed in Poland. As a result, at the end of September, the total stock of modern warehouse space exceeded 9.7 million sqm.
From July to September, 117 lease agreements for a total area of 675,000 sqm were signed on the Polish warehouse market. This result was similar to that recorded in the previous quarter and more than one-third higher than the demand recorded in the same period of 2014 (499,000 sqm). The highest tenant activity was observed in the Upper Silesian region, which accounted for 26% of total demand in the analyzed period.
Over the past three months, a significant number of short-term agreements (22) were recorded, which are not included in the aggregate statistics. An additional 69,000 sqm was leased through these transactions. Compared to the end of June 2015, the vacancy rate increased by 0.2 percentage points, reaching 5.3% at the end of September.
At the end of Q3 2015, 592,000 sqm of modern warehouse space remained under construction, more than two-thirds of which will be completed next year. In the coming months, the start of further speculative investments is expected, especially in Wrocław, Poznań, and Warsaw. At the same time, we expect the development of new warehouse markets, such as Rzeszów or Bydgoszcz. Further growth in demand for warehouse space is forecast, resulting, among other things, from the expansion of tenants from the e-commerce industry. According to forecasts, rental rates will remain at levels similar to previous months.
Retail market
In the third quarter of 2015, shopping centers with a total leasable area of approx. 103,300 sqm were commissioned in Poland. Thus, the total stock of modern retail space increased to a level of approx. 10.6 million sqm. Completed expansions accounted for as much as 33% of the newly commissioned retail space.
At the end of the third quarter, a total of approx. 760,700 sqm of modern retail space was under construction, with nearly half (45%) planned for completion by the end of this year. Expansions of existing projects currently account for only 11% of the space under construction.
More than half (58%) of the newly emerging supply of shopping centers is located in the largest Polish agglomerations. In the smallest cities (with a population of less than 100,000 inhabitants), there is 29% of the supply under construction. The largest newly emerging shopping centers are Posnania, Wroclavia, and Galeria Północna, the construction of which in the Białołęka district of Warsaw began in the last quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 2015, the opening of a dozen or so new facilities is planned. The estimated total new supply of retail space for the whole year is approx. 620,000 sqm. This will be a result approx. 37% higher than that achieved in 2014 (453,000 sqm) and similar to the level recorded in the record year 2013, when the largest amount of space since 2009 was commissioned (645,000 sqm).
The full report is available at: http://goo.gl/xQo9cA