Abstract: The forecasts of the structure and demand for commercial road freight transport in Poland presented in the article were prepared by the authors based on a number of socio-economic phenomena that have a significant impact on the development of transport work, including changes in the structure of GDP generation or factors that determine the current shape of the economy, both through stimulation and inhibition of its development. In most prognostic studies, estimated trends in commercial road freight transport assume that this transport will increase its market share.The greatest changes affecting the volume and structure of demand for transport are taking place in the technological and innovative sphere of transport, in the structure and technologies of production, and in the sphere of society’s lifestyle. The main barriers limiting the effective and rational functioning of road freight transport enterprises are infrastructural, legislative, financial, and administrative inconveniences.
Due to the significant breadth of factors determining the forecasts for the demand for the services of road freight transport enterprises, according to the European Conference of Ministers of Transport, the assessment of forecasts should take into account a time perspective of about 30 years.
Burnewicz J.: Vision of the transport structure and development of transport networks until 2033 with particular emphasis on the target model structure of transport, expert opinion for the Ministry of Regional Development, Sopot 2007, p. 4
Assumptions of the “National Transport Development Strategy for 2002-2013”, Ministry of Infrastructure, Warsaw 2004, p. 18
In most prognostic studies, including those by J. Burnewicz, S. Dorosiewicz, W. Gis, E. Menes and J. Waśkiewicz, S. Ślubowski, J. Waśkiewicz, further growth in road transport is assumed. According to the analyses contained in the White Paper, in the coming years we will witness a significant increase in road freight transport in EU countries. EU experts predict that the value of these transports, which amounted to 118 billion tkm in 1990, will reach the level of 320 billion tkm in 2020. In the 25 member states, over these 30 years, the share of road transport will increase from 60% in 1990 to 75% in 2020.7
Estimated trends until 2030 in the field of road freight transport, presented in the EU Green Paper of 2003 (…)
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Source: Logistics Magazine