Forecasting the consequences of road accidents in Poland

The paper addresses the issue of forecasting the consequences of road accidents in Poland in 2011. The forecast based on annual data leads to the optimistic conclusion that the downward trend observed in the years 2008-2010 will be maintained in 2011. Another forecast was performed for quarterly data covering the years 2006-2010. Verification of the forecast results based on observations from the first two quarters of 2011 contradicts the above conclusion, which means a breakdown of the downward trend that occurred in the last three years.2008-2010 will continue in 2011. Another forecast was done for quarterly data comprising years 2006-2010. The verification of the forecast results on the basis of observations from the first two quarters of 2011 contradicts the aforementioned conclusion, which means there is a drop in the decreasing tendency that occured in the past three years.
INTRODUCTION
In 2009, there were 1,157,728 road accidents in the European Union countries, in which 34,492 people died and 1,544,773 people suffered bodily injuries.
The highest number of road accidents occurred in Germany – 304,583, in Italy – 208,015, and in Great Britain – 166,205. Poland, with 44,196 accidents, ranked sixth, just as in the previous year. Unfortunately, the highest number of fatalities was recorded in our country; Poland took the infamous first place among EU member states with 4,572 fatalities. Apart from Poland, the highest number of fatalities was recorded in France – 4,273 people, in Germany – 4,152 people, and in Italy – 4,050 people. The highest rate of fatalities per 100 accidents was also recorded in Poland – 10.3, and in Lithuania – 9.9 [1]. (…)

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