Construction of a ship collision situation model in a restricted area

The article presents the process of constructing a collision situation model in a restricted area. Bayesian networks were used to achieve the research objective. Methods for assessing collision risk and estimating consequences by calculating the expected collision energy were employed. The conducted simulation and expert studies confirmed the high accuracy of the collision situation assessment.INTRODUCTION
The movement of a ship along a fairway, which can be considered as a technical system, carries risks for both the environment and the ship itself. This risk is characterized by uncertainty regarding its occurrence and the consequences it may cause. Uncertainty can be expressed as the probability of a given event occurring, which, in conjunction with potential consequences, allows for the determination of risk.
Kaplan and Garrick (1981) define risk as a set of elements ri, each with a different probability pi and consequences si of the event occurring.
A current problem in navigation safety is the ability to estimate risk in a restricted area (Gucma S. 2000, Gucma L. & Pietrzykowski 2001, 2002, Otte
1998, De Rouck 1998). (…)

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