Application of foresight methods for forecasting the development of transport systems on the example of the Upper Silesian agglomeration

In the face of limited financial resources available to improve the quality and conditions of human life, and due to the high risk associated with structural innovation projects, there is a need for rational decision-making.Searching for the most probable vision of development is one of the reasons why future studies, which also include the foresight method, are gaining increasing popularity and recognition. The article addresses issues related to the methodology of searching for rational visions and development scenarios for transport systems, using the example of Silesia for the years 2012–2030.
1. WHAT IS FORESIGHT?
Foresight is a process of creating a methodology for thinking about the future, in which scientists, engineers, industry representatives, and public administration employees participate in determining strategic directions for technology and research development in order to generate the greatest possible economic and social benefits for the economy. Participants in a foresight project establish priority research directions, jointly creating a vision of future achievements. Beyond immediate goals (building development scenarios), foresight is also of great importance for meeting the demand for scientific, business, and cultural know-how.
Technological foresight is a process involved in a systematic (scientific) look at the long-term future of technology, science, the economy, and society, aimed at identifying areas of strategic research and emerging generic technologies that have the potential to bring the highest economic and social benefits within a specific time frame.
Thus, the general goal of technological foresight is to identify emerging key technologies that have the potential to generate the highest economic and social benefits. Key technologies are considered to be those with high potential to influence the competitiveness of a given enterprise, region, or country, as well as the quality of life of society.
A number of important aspects of the above-cited definitions of the foresight methodology can be listed [1]: (…)

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