Is it possible to responsibly answer the question: what will logistics look like in 2030? It is well known how much logistics already depends on information based on increasingly modern ICT and telecommunications solutions. Twenty years ago (which is the period defining the horizon of this forecast) – yes – there were computers in companies, but it was hard to speak of widespread computerization. In 1990, the World Wide Web practically did not exist yet, and the first attempts at sending e-mails, which I witnessed at the Institute of Logistics and Warehousing at the end of that year, resembled sending the first telegraph dispatches. And yet, this technological sphere is developing extremely dynamically and progressively, and there is no indication that this pace will slow down. If so, what can we expect in 2030? It is difficult to predict, but we must be prepared for the fact that we will look at today’s super-modern solutions the way we perceive the nearly kilogram-heavy mobile phones that were the pride of their owners at the end of the 20th century.
Expecting further development of ICT technology, we can expect universal access to internet platforms, ensuring the use of huge amounts of data updated in real time and processed in such a way that the user receives individually configured services. The already operating (I hope!) GALILEO system will be an inspiration for numerous applications allowing – for example – automatic, on-line updating of digital maps and current traffic control based on the latest information about weather, traffic intensity, and other conditions. These platforms will simultaneously offer various optimization applications in the field of transport, warehousing, and inventory localization. Certainly, ICT solutions will significantly influence the safety of recipients (consumers) and the goods themselves. I believe that the aspects of so-called safety & security will gain in importance.
Solutions enabling full identification of individual goods, along with tracking their full history throughout the entire supply chain, will be in widespread use. I began my considerations on the logistics of 2030 with ICT solutions because this is certainly the most spectacularly developing sphere, allowing for the unpunished spinning of even the most daring visions. However, logistics will still need solutions in the sphere of physical flows. I do not expect any extraordinary breakthrough here within the next 20 years. We will certainly have more energy-efficient and environmentally friendly means of transport, but road transport will still dominate. I also fear that the sustainability of logistics, and especially transport, will still be visible more in the documents of the European Commission (will it still be the main regulator of Europe?) than in economic practice.
The article comes from the magazine “Logistyka” 3/2010.