The global economic recession and the crisis in the financial sector of developed economies have had a significant impact on maritime transport since mid-2008. The decline in major macroeconomic indicators reflected an economic slowdown, which negatively affected consumption and production, leading to a decrease in the supply of goods transported by sea. The economic slowdown also affected China, which had been driving the development of maritime transport between major continents since the 1990s. The decline in production dynamics and GDP in leading economic regions resulted in a slowdown of economies in sub-regions, such as the North Sea, Baltic Sea, and Mediterranean Sea regions.
Changes in the Baltic Dry Index
<\/strong>As a result of the decrease in global demand for maritime transport services, the Baltic Dry Index<\/em> (BDI), which reached its minimum at the beginning of 2009 by falling below 1000 points, grew to approximately 4000 points during the first half of the year, then fell to 2000 points in August and September 2009, only to briefly approach 5000 points in November of last year, before falling to approximately 3400 points on January 1, 2010. Although the economic recovery lasted for the first 6 months of 2009, shipowners consider this period the worst during the economic recession.
Despite large declines in the second half of 2008, transport volumes were still about 3.6% higher than in 2007, when the global growth rate was 4.5%. As a result, despite a sharp collapse in supply in the middle of the following year (2008), approximately 8.17 billion tons of cargo were transported. The decrease in production in 2008 and 2009 also caused a decline in demand for bulk cargo, including energy carriers. Demand for crude oil remained stable only in China. In other regions, there was a decline of 1 to 1.5 million barrels per day. The EIA (U. S. Energy Information Administration<\/em>) forecasts that after a dynamic decline in demand for crude oil in 2008 and the first half of 2009, demand will stabilize and grow in 2010. The International Energy Agency<\/em> estimates that after demand at the level of 84.9 million barrels per day in 2009, there will be an increase to 86.3 million barrels per day this year. The dynamics of demand will change from unfavorable last year (a decrease in demand of 1.4 million barrels per day) to favorable (an increase in demand of 1.5 million barrels per day).<\/p>
Changes in cargo capacity supply
<\/strong>Despite the decline in demand for bulk and general cargo handling as early as 2008 and at the beginning of 2009, the supply of ships and cargo capacity continued to grow. At the beginning of last year, the world fleet had 1.19 billion dwt and was 6.7% larger than in January 2008. Despite the decline in global production, shipyards continued intensive production of new units, fulfilling extensive order books for ships contracted in 2007-2008. Deliveries of units even exceeded twice the number of units withdrawn from service, and the fleet capacity for some types of vessels grew at some shipowners at a rate of about 20% per year. By the end of 2008, contracts began to be renegotiated. Shipowners tried to cancel contracts or postpone delivery dates for new units. In mid-2009, Credit Suisse<\/em> forecasted that to balance the supply of cargo capacity with demand, orders for bulk carriers would need to be reduced by 70%.<\/p>
The article comes from the magazine “Logistyka” 1/2010.<\/p>