Container shipping in the Baltic according to the Baltic Container Outlook 2009

The current difficult situation in the container industry is, of course, a result of the perturbations that the entire global economy is currently undergoing. Until mid-2008, commodity and oil prices were rising rapidly, followed by a sudden drop in prices after the middle of the year. As a result of this, as well as the global financial crisis, the growth rate of all maritime transport compared to 2007 fell from 4.8 percent to 3 percent, and in global container shipping from 10.8 percent to 5.1 percent. While at the beginning of 2009 the forecast for container shipping for the current year was 3.1 percent, no one assumes such an optimistic result anymore.

The difficulty for the container industry also lies in the fact that until last year its transport capacity was growing due to the dynamic development of this type of transport (in 2008, total transport capacity increased by 14 percent). Due to high demand, shipowners were eager to place orders for subsequent and increasingly larger container ships. According to data from the so-called order book, this translates into an increase in transport capacity in the container industry until 2015, even though some orders are currently being cancelled. Compared to the increase in transport capacity, the decline in demand for cargo transport is devastating for maritime transport. After freight rates dropped drastically, the number of ships lying uselessly at anchor is increasing. At the beginning of March this year, it was 11.3 percent of the global container fleet. Despite this, the top ten largest global container carriers remain unchanged, although there have been some reshuffles in the Baltic. Shipowners operating in this market are trying to adapt to the changing situation by adopting various strategies. Some are increasing the number of ports they call at, thereby starting to compete with ro-ro operators (e.g., Unifeeder, Fresco, or OOCL). Others are trying to focus on selected connections, increasing the frequency of calls by better utilizing the cargo space of their units. This strategy is used, for example, by Maersk, MSC, or Team Lines.

The Baltic container fleet decreased last year by 28 smaller ships, as a result of which its transport capacity fell by 11.9 percent. Despite this, the average size of a ship increased due to the introduction of larger and larger units into operation. Containerships is the only Baltic operator that increased the size of its fleet by 2 units last year. Although Unifeeder introduced 3 ships in 2008, it simultaneously withdrew several units from operation, which consequently reduced the total number of its ships.

– The growth rate of Baltic container shipping last year reached 7.2 percent. In 2007, it was approx. 16 percent, so the decline in turnover is significant. If we take into account only the 25 largest Baltic ports, the growth will be only 6.5 percent – explains the author of the Baltic Container Outlook 2009, Maciej Matczak, senior consultant at Actia Consulting. – The highest growth rate was recorded in Lithuania, Russia, and Poland – by 16, 13.6, and 11.9 percent, respectively. The ranking of container ports in the Baltic has also changed. Gdynia, which held 3rd place last year, fell to 4th position, and the first three are occupied by St. Petersburg, Gothenburg, and Kotka. Gdańsk is 11th, and Szczecin-Świnoujście is 18th.

The Baltic Container Outlook 2009 is the second consecutive report published by the Gdynia-based company Actia Consulting. It provides a cross-sectional analysis of the container market, particularly in the Baltic Sea region. The report contains data regarding both the container fleet in the Baltic and statistics on transshipments in ports and individual Baltic terminals, including the Russian market treated as a whole.

In terms of turnover volume in individual container terminals in the Baltic, in 2008 the largest container terminal was the First Container Terminal in St. Petersburg. Polish container terminals hold the following positions: BCT in 6th place (-10.8 percent turnover), GCT in 14th place (43.7 percent), DCT Gdańsk in 17th place (an increase of 300 percent), while the last two places in the ranking went to GTK and PCC Drobnica Port Szczecin (19th and 20th place, respectively, and -14.5 percent and 23.7 percent). The largest decline in turnover occurred at BCT Gdynia due to Maersk’s move to DCT Gdańsk and West Harbour Helsingborg in Sweden (-22 percent). DCT Gdańsk recorded the largest percentage increase in transshipments, although this is due to the fact that it was launched only in mid-2007.

The Baltic Container Outlook was prepared by the Actia Consulting team, which is part of the Gdynia-based company Actia Forum. Details regarding the report can be found at www.actiaconsulting.pl.