Macroeconomic situation
The condition of logistics is inextricably linked to the state of the entire economy, and the years 2006-2007 were record-breaking for the Polish economy. Both the national income and other macroeconomic indicators reached high levels (Figure 1). The greatest successes were achieved by exporters, who were not hindered by the strong zloty, which reduced the competitiveness of the Polish economy. However, economists point to the inflationary threat associated with wage growth and rising service prices. In light of these good economic results, expectations regarding the high growth dynamics of the Polish logistics services market increased, both for contract logistics and those carried out by enterprises for their own needs. This is especially true since logistics – according to the generally accepted principle – should develop much faster than the economy as a whole.
The good prospects for the development of the TSL (Transport – Forwarding – Logistics) market in our country are also influenced by the inflow of foreign direct investment, the relocation of production activities from old EU countries to new members, Poland’s favorable geographical location in Europe, and the inflow of EU funds, which should help improve the state of logistics infrastructure. Among the barriers limiting market development, the rising costs of operations (employment and fuel) come to the fore on one hand, and the poor state of transport infrastructure on the other, which, in the opinion of experts, will remain the main obstacle hindering the development of the logistics market in the future as well.
The value-based picture of logistics consists of two areas of activity related to the logistics market as a whole and the logistics services market (contract logistics). The contract logistics market, shaped by companies from the TSL sector, is significantly smaller than the logistics market, as the latter includes, in addition to logistics activities provided by TSL companies for other enterprises, also the logistics tasks of all companies carried out for their own needs. The Institute of Logistics and Warehousing attempted to estimate the value of both these markets. To solve the problem of estimating the value of the logistics market in Poland defined at the beginning, the Institute of Logistics and Warehousing developed its own calculation methodology. It uses statistical data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) and estimates determined based on the Institute’s own research. The adopted methodology takes into account both logistics revenues achieved by companies as a result of commercial activity and costs incurred for logistics tasks intended for own needs (economic activity). The results of the calculations presented in Figure 2 show that the value of the logistics market in Poland exceeded 125 billion PLN in 2007, which accounted for over 11.0% of the gross national income.
The presented results also indicate an leading growth trend in the value of the logistics industry in relation to the entire economy, determined by the indicators presented in Figure 1, and therefore, an increase in the share of the logistics market in the gross domestic product should be expected.
The article comes from the magazine “Logistyka” 3/2008.