For centuries, the existence of an efficient transport system has been a prerequisite for the possibilities of efficient management, production specialization, and the smooth flow of goods from their places of origin to places of storage or consumption. In Europe, road transport has long held a dominant position in the transport market, and this role is systematically growing. The importance of road transport for the modern European economy is very well illustrated by data published by the European Union. For example, in 1990 – considering only the three most popular modes of transport (road, rail, and inland waterways) in terms of transport performance, equal to 1764.9 billion tkm – road transport accounted for 1064.3 billion tkm, or more than 60%. Rail transport amounted to 440.2 billion tkm (24.9%), while inland waterway transport accounted for 260.4 billion tkm (14.8%). In subsequent years, the share of road transport systematically increased, and it is predicted to continue to grow, mainly at the expense of rail (Table 1).
EU analyses indicate that in the 1990-2020 period, road transport could increase by as much as 136.5%, with a 60% growth in the 1990-2005 period! As a result, the share of road transport in total transport, measured in tkm, will rise from 60.3% in 1990 to 75.3% in 2020. This means that in 13 years, according to current forecasts, even three-quarters of the transport work performed will be related to road traffic. At the same time, rail, despite attempts by EU authorities to revitalize this mode of transport, will not only fail to increase but will actually lose its market share in total transport (from 24.9% in 1990 to just 12.6% in 2020, i.e., by half). A positive element is that the worst time, i.e., the years 1995-2005, when the largest decline in rail transport occurred, is already behind the railway companies. However, it should be emphasized that even so, transport measured in tkm in 2020 is expected to be less than 4.5% lower than in 1990. Against the background of rail, inland waterway transport performs quite well. In the period under discussion, it should increase its transport performance (by 54.8% in the years 1990-2020), although, due to the much faster growth of vehicle transport, its share in total transport will fall from 14.8% to 12.1% and will decrease systematically, similar to the case of rail, throughout all three decades. The projected and real growth in the importance of road transport results mainly from one of its fundamental advantages, namely its significant flexibility. This means, among other things, the ability to quickly adapt to changes in the directions and volumes of cargo streams intended for transport. Neither rail, nor inland waterways, nor air transport (which has a relatively small share of cargo transport in total European freight transport) possess such flexibility. This is a result of infrastructural limitations occurring in these three branches: high costs of building and maintaining infrastructure and – although to a lesser extent – high costs of purchasing the means of transport themselves. Although the average wear-and-tear period of these means is even 3-4 times longer than that of cars. In inland waterway transport, there are also numerous, sometimes difficult to overcome barriers related to the forces of nature (amount of precipitation, course and condition of rivers, temperature levels, etc.).
However, a number of threats are associated with the systematically increasing importance of road transport. And this is not about environmental protection (noise, pollution), as this issue has long been considered very important. Thanks to changes in the legal [system] and progress in the automotive industry and the industries cooperating with it (metallurgical, chemical, electronic, and others), it has been possible to significantly reduce the negative impact of commercial vehicles on nature over the last less than three decades. The emission of harmful substances (nitrogen and carbon oxides, hydrocarbons, particulate matter) has decreased several times over.
The article comes from the magazine “Logistyka” 5/2007.