One of the consequences of Poland adopting the Community principles of economic operation is an even wider opening of the market to foreign companies. Most Polish transport SMEs are not prepared for integration with the EU market, nor are they able to meet customer expectations or face strong and well-organized foreign competition. Changing this situation is absolutely linked to the necessity of carrying out deep structural and organizational changes in these enterprises.
Analyzing the financial condition of domestic transport SMEs, it is worth mentioning the systematic fuel price increases or the fact that the MAUT toll was introduced in Germany. Small carriers are sounding the alarm, emphasizing that they receive only 0.6 to 0.65 euros per kilometer, while travel costs amount to 0.35 to 0.4 euros. And yet, taxes must be paid, vehicle leasing costs covered, and employees paid. More and more often, Polish carriers agree to carry out freight below cost. Therefore, a wave of bankruptcies should be expected, which will primarily affect small and medium-sized companies (according to the National Association of Road Transport Employers, as many as one in five transport companies in our country may go bankrupt this year). It is also worth mentioning the oversupply of transport services here.
Before joining the EU, about 38,000 tractors were used in international transport, while data from the BOTM shows that this number is now 78,000. Especially with regard to small, “family” transport companies, it should be noted that it is not so much that they cannot calculate costs, but that they do not do it at all. Economic calculation in the case of “family” companies does not come into play. Only money that is enough to cover current liabilities counts. There is a widespread opinion among carriers that the so-called “market cleansing” is ongoing, but it is not known when it will end.
Therefore, until then, there can be no talk of any stabilization. There has been a collision of brutal market reality with rather irrationally made decisions about acquiring new means of transport. If, after all, several dozen percent of new vehicles appeared on the market in less than a year, the irrationality of such actions is perfectly visible. Cargo transport forecasts taking into account economic development variants, as well as trends in transport intensity changes (growth
slower than the GDP growth rate) predict that in the 2004 – 2020 period, cargo transport (tonne-kilometers) in land transport will increase from 30% to about 67%, depending on the pace of Poland’s economic development.
Forecasts of changes in the structure of transport work due to the share of transport branches: rail, road, pipeline, and inland and maritime water transport, made on the basis of trend analysis, assume that the current division of transport tasks in the branch system will not undergo significant changes. Therefore, for companies carrying out road transport of goods, these forecasts should be seen as an opportunity for survival and/or development. It is worth pointing out that an opportunity for companies from the TSL sector in Poland may be transport service for eastern markets. Undoubtedly, the situation in Ukraine, Bulgaria, or even Romania should be closely monitored. As soon as the political situation in Ukraine stabilizes, many Polish companies will face the opportunity to “anchor” in the local transport market. It should be remembered that Poland is the fourth largest supplier to Ukraine, and we are preceded by, among others, Russia and Germany. If/when the political situation in Ukraine normalizes, economic growth can be expected in that market. Due to Poland’s geographical location, our transporters already carry out a quarter of a million transports annually between the European Union and countries beyond the eastern “wall”. An obvious question (which is open, by the way) is whether, and if so – to what extent – domestic transport SMEs will be able to take advantage of this opportunity. For two years, i.e., since the revival of the Russian economy, the interest of Polish and foreign carriers in transport towards the east has been systematically increasing.
In this situation, permits as a factor limiting market access reduce the competitiveness of Polish transport companies, including those classified as SMEs. The economic revival of the countries of the former Yugoslavia (e.g., Serbia, Slovenia, or Montenegro) and the economically self-reliant countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (e.g., Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan) causes a systematic increase in the interest of Polish and foreign carriers in transport in these directions. Here, too, the factor limiting market access and reducing the competitiveness of Polish transport companies is the lack of a sufficient number of permits.
The article comes from the magazine “Logistyka” No. 3/2006.